House Price Index for Mobile Metro Area Nearing Pre-Recession Peak
Mobile’s house price index is on the rise and if current price appreciation trends continue, the index will reach a new high of 192.33 by the end of 2019.
After some brief volatility in the late 1980s, the index increased for 19 consecutive years from 1990 (81.91) to 2008 (189.71) with an average annual growth rate of 4.64%. The largest gain during this stretch was a 14.49% increase from 2005 to 2006, a warning sign of the coming recession. Growth rates moderated to 8.18% in 2007 and 1.04% in 2008 when the index peaked at 189.71. Not surprisingly, the index posted its first annual drop in 2009 as the Great Recession began to impact residential markets across the nation. The index then declined for 5 consecutive years from 2009 to 2014, with an average annual decrease of 3.77%. From the post-recession trough in 2013 (156.38), the index has gained 3.53% per year to its current level of 185.77, with the largest gain coming in 2018 with 7.02% year-over-year growth. The 2019 index value is likely post another gain as the Mobile area’s economy grows and continues to attract foreign investment. Expect growth rates, however, to moderate in 2019 back towards 3.5%. With a modest gain of 3.5%, the index will reach 192.33 in 2019, a new high-water mark for residential real estate in the Mobile metro area.